On: "Whether D Thrump policy is negative for USA?"

Net negative economic impact driven primarily by broad tariffs

Independent economic analyses, including the CBO, project that sweeping double-digit tariffs covering over 75% of imports will shrink the overall U.S. economy. While federal tariff receipts are projected to grow by $1.4 trillion, the associated supply chain disruptions, policy volatility, and higher consumer costs outweigh these revenue gains. Secondary shocks like elevated oil prices compound these headwinds.

88%

aligned

Average confidence 72%

All experts conclude that Trump's policies are net negative overall, primarily driven by tariffs.

Live context

Gathered Oct 27, 2026, 6:58 PM

CBO says the new tariffs implemented between January 6, 2025, and August 19, 2025, covering a little more than 75% of U.S. imported goods by 2024 import value, will on net reduce the size of the U.S. economy. Reuters said on July 27, 2026 that Trump’s second-term policies have…

SourcesCBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028 | Congressional Budget Office Trump economy at 18 months is a tale of shocks, resilience, and signs of stalled progress By Reuters A New Jersey food importer files a lawsuit challenging Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods Trump Tariffs Tracker: Rates, Revenue, and Impact | 2026 Tariffs ⚖️ Trade's political squeeze

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Not on this panel

Kimi K3.1 and Claude Fable 5.1 didn't sit on this council.

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Where they agree

✓CBO projections show broad tariffs covering over 75% of imports reduce U.S. economic output.

✓Constant tariff revisions and geopolitical shocks have created severe supply chain disruption.

✓The projected $1.4 trillion in tariff revenue does not offset broader economic contraction.

Where they diverge

↔OpenAI highlights that immigration policy impacts remain far more contested than trade impacts.

↔xAI emphasizes the unanticipated Iran conflict and its direct spike in oil prices.

↔DeepSeek focuses on the deadweight loss of frequent policy shifts on long-term investment.

The 3 takes

GPT-6 Luna

Lens · Economic Growth & Cost

Trump's policies are mostly negative overall, as broad tariffs raise domestic costs and shrink the economy despite raising government revenue.

82% confident

Grok 4.20

Lens · Macro Shocks & Tariffs

Policies are net negative for the U.S., supported by CBO shrinkage estimates, supply disruptions, and energy price spikes from the Iran war.

65% confident

DeepSeek V4.1 Flash

Lens · Net Policy Mix & Sentiment

The policy mix is net negative due to frequent tariff shifts that suppress investment, despite revenue gains and selective domestic reshoring.

68% confident

InstinctJev · TypeSafeMostly personal taste

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Synthesized from 3 independent expert passes. Treat as informed input, not a guarantee. Your own judgment is the final vote.

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